by: Grebner
Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 11:55:02 AM EST
[The following is from Alan Fox, who actually does all the work at PPC and makes sure our numbers add up correctly. I normally try to keep him out of sight.]
As we approach the Michigan primary there are two key issues that may be answered. The first is one of public perception: Will Clinton’s likely win over Uncommitted be ‘big’ enough to mean anything? Will she clear the 60% suggested as necessary by one commentator or whatever other figure observers suggest means a ‘victory?’ This posting is not about that issue.
This posting is about the other issue to be decided by the primary: How many delegates will be pledge to Clinton and how many will be unpledged and, at least in theory, free to vote for any candidate if the nomination is decided by the convention itself for the first time in more than fifty years.
The outcome of the primary is not clear, but I think two broad facts are beyond dispute: The first is that the Democratic primary, for purposes of delegate selection, is a two-way affair. Yes, Kucinich is campaigning in the state, but it is impossible to imagine him gaining the 15% necessary to elect even one delegate in one congressional district.
The other is that Michigan voters are getting the message that ‘Uncommitted’ is the vote that counts for anyone whose first choice is not Clinton. Indeed the publicity about the ‘Uncommitted’ option has been so extensive that today’s Free Press poll reports that 16% of Republicans say they will vote Uncommitted.
Now to the math.
Michigan’s Democratic delegates, who will be picked even if the DNC says they will not be seated, are selected in three pools, each apportioned according to the results of the primary. Two of these pools are elected based on the statewide results: 28 at-large delegates and 17 party leader delegates.
Another 83 delegates are assigned to our fifteen congressional districts. Eight districts have five delegates, CDs 5, 8, 9, 12, 13 and 15 have six delegates and CD 14 has seven.
When delegates are apportioned between the candidates (for this purpose ‘Uncommitted’ is a candidate) only votes for candidates that achieve the 15% threshold are counted. In other words, if Clinton wins a district over Uncommitted 55%-30%, with the other 15% scattered among Kucinich, Gravel and Dodd, the effect is nearly a 65-35 win because 55/85 is almost 65%. Spoiled and blank ballots, including write-ins cast for anyone, are not counted in setting the 15% threshold nor in any other way.
The two statewide pools of delegates are large enough that small shifts in the primary outcome will affect the delegate counts directly. Very roughly speaking, a five-point gain for either candidate will add two delegates, one from each pool.
At the district level, however, very large shifts are needed to switch a delegate from one column to the other. In the districts with six delegates, a narrow win does not translate into an additional delegate. If both Clinton and Uncommitted receive between 41.67% and 58.33% a six-delegate district will split 3-3. Every one of these districts seems likely to split this way. If they don’t, there will still be at least two delegates elected each for Clinton and Uncommitted because the percentage needed to change a 4-2 split into a 5-1 split is 75% of the two-way vote.
In the districts with odd numbers of delegates the difference between winning and losing a district will be the odd delegate. But in all of these districts chances are that at least two delegates each will be elected for Clinton and as Uncommitted. In a five-delegate district, the result will be three delegates for the winner and two for second place so long as the first place finisher has under 70% of the two-way vote.CD 14 will split 4-3 unless the winner reaches 64.3% and creates a 5-2 split.
Even a decisive win by Clinton will leave thirty or more district delegates, as well as a number of statewide delegates, as officially Uncommitted. Who the delegates are and how committed or uncommitted they really are is a matter for district conventions and for State Central. These bodies will not decide until March, by which time their choices could be absolutely critical or of no interest at all, depending on what happens beyond our state lines.
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