MarkGrebner.Org

Lagging absentee ballot returns – an unexpected story

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Violet
in
by: Grebner

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:19:03 PM EST

As I’ve been saying, the rate at which absentee ballots have been returned has been disappointing.

I’ve run various analyses, and I think I’ve isolated a major contributing factor:  several hundred thousand people who were not habitual absentee voters were convinced to apply for ballots.  For whatever reason, many of them have failed to follow through and return them.  

The numbers are stark.

The first chart shows the distribution of the requests logged into the Secretary of State system by local Clerks, according to the number of times they had previously voted by absentee ballot.  As you can see, there’s a dramatic tendency for people with more experience voting absentee to have a higher rate of returning their ballots.

To put it more bluntly, somebody talked a quarter million people into trying absentee voting – but then abandoned them before the job was completed.  It’s pretty obvious that some hand-holding was needed.

 
 prev   COUNT         RETURNED
 0     247280            56.6%
 1      99513            64.4
 2      77662            68.5
 3      57628            71.4
 4      47320            73.1
 5      39405            74.9
 6      33647            76.2
 7      29380            77.7
 8      26215            78.5
 9      24685            79.3
 10     22824            79.7
 >10   265009            81.6
 

The second chart divides everybody who has applied for an absentee ballot for the November election, based on what they did in the January 15 presidential primary.  This is handy because it allows us to see how absentee voting varies both by previous absentee voting and by party.

As you can see, people who used an absentee ballot back in January are doing well this November.  But people who voted at their precinct in January are showing the same sort of dithering we saw in the chart above.  It looks as if both parties are leaving a HUGE number of votes on the table, simply because they assume that applying for a ballot is the hard part, and once that’s done, the voter can be trusted to complete the process.

Jan 15 vote              COUNT         RETURNED
did not vote            544817            65.47
Dem walk-in voter        51358            65.64
No-Party walk-in           393            59.80
Rep walk-in voter        89278            67.10
Dem absentee voter      149190            84.26
No-party absentee          961            78.88
Rep absentee voter      134571            80.58

Comments

12 responses to “Lagging absentee ballot returns – an unexpected story”

  1. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    College students?
    That would be my guess. When we ran a pro millage campaign last November in our local school district and recruited college students to vote absentee they filled out the applications we provided them but many failed to follow through on actually voting.

    The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

    – Ralph Waldo Emerson
    by: michmark @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:25:59 PM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      There are a bunch of factors in failing to return ballots.
      College students almost by definition lack experience voting by absentee ballot. I looked at voters aged 18-28 who asked for ballots to be mailed to various college towns in Michigan. The results aren’t pretty. I suppose a few ballots will show up in Tuesday’s mail, but I’ll be surprised if it’s more than a handful.
      As of today – Monday before the election – only 56.6% of the 3313 ballots mailed to East Lansing have been returned, 54.4% of the 2191 ballots mailed to Ann Arbor, and 57.8% of the 1829 ballots mailed to Mt. Pleasant. Obama has TEN THOUSAND volunteers in college towns; why weren’t campus absentee voters assigned to minders? The campaign subscribes to the same daily updates I receive, and the patterns aren’t hard to read.

      But it’s not only students. Looking at EVERYBODY who requested an absentee ballot sent to an address outside Michigan, but who had not previously used one more than a single time, only 49.6% have been returned by people aged 18-28. That rises to 54.0% of people aged 29-59, and 62.0% of people over the age of 60.

      Among out-of-state ballots requested by people who have used absentee ballots three times or more, the return rates are 15 points higher for each age group.

      Finally, I looked at “ordinary” absentee voters: people over 60 who requested a ballot sent to their home address. The same pattern emerges:

      Requests previous return rate
      82585 0 63.7%
      47873 1 70.9
      42787 2 74.5
      35101 3 76.7
      31075 4 77.7
      387169 >4 81.4

      GOTV can either be a community-building ceremony of affirmation, or it can be a deadly serious attempt to win an election. I suppose it’s obvious which I prefer.

      We’ve squandered tens of thousands of votes in this election by failing to keep our eyes on the ball. We’re lucky that the other side hasn’t done any better.

      It will be very interesting to see if having requested absentee ballots actually INHIBITS voting among people who fail to return them. We’ll know for sure early next year, when the voting history data is fully updated. I’ll make a follow-up post at that time.

      by: Grebner @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:40:14 PM CST

      Reply
    2. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Annecdotes
      Talked with a few college students of mine. They turned in their ballots on Friday or Saturday. Maybe not enough time to get to polling place. One was the head of the College Dems.
      Agreed, the push for absentee was never a great idea.

      West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

      by: philgoblue @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 11:05:37 AM CST

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      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        Saturday may have been just in time.
        The USPS is gradually putting election-friendly policies in place. One of those is to actually pay attention to the fact of election day, and to make an extra effort to move absentee ballots to the local Clerks by the deadline, if at all possible.
        The return curve implicit in my chart shows a substantial number of ballots arriving Monday and today – but it ends up well below 90%, especially for people who are voting absentee for the first time.

        If we fall 100,000 votes short of 90%, that amounts to 2% of the statewide vote lost purely because of absentee-dawdling.

        by: Grebner @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 12:24:52 PM CST

        Reply
  2. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Question regarding those voters
    I’m just curious – what happens if a voter who was issued an absentee ballot (but did not mail it/submit it) shows up to the polls?
    Do those voters get sent to the city/township clerk’s office? I’m assuming they won’t be allowed to vote at the polling site.

    (I’m a poll watcher/challenger. I’ll look through my packet of instructions to see if there is a clear answer on this. It’s something I hadn’t thought about before. And, I was just about to sit down to read the final set of instructions now. If I find answers, I’ll let you know.)

    Thanks for tracking this. There surely is something rather unusual here.

    by: land of the free @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:27:18 PM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Our County Clerk readers should answer this.
      My understanding is that if you show up, you can vote without hassle. They have a list of ballots that have been returned, which they they check, but it’s fairly common for people to walk-in, sometimes carrying the unvoted ballot.
      by: Grebner @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:48:50 PM CST

      Reply
      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        You are correct Grebner
        If they did not vote on their absentee ballot they can still vote at the polls.

        Dan Scripps for State Representative: For Jobs, Schools and The Great Outdoors
        by: AikoAdam @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:09:47 PM CST

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        1. Violet Avatar
          Violet

          info from Secy of State office website
          at http://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,…
          Absentee ballots must be returned to the clerk’s office by hand or by mail by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
          So, I would assume this means that if a voter had requested an absentee ballot, and showed up at the polling place (either to vote or turn in the absentee ballot), he or she would be directed to take it to the city clerk’s office.

          I cannot see any information on the Oakland County nor the Farmington city clerk’s office website to say how late the offices are open on election day. Perhaps some City or County Clerks can provide more information as to the rules.

          by: land of the free @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:21:24 PM CST

          Reply
        2. Violet Avatar
          Violet

          By that they mean
          that for an absentee ballot to count it has to be returned by the closing of polls. Anything that comes in later than that, by any means, will not be counted. Although there might be exceptions for overseas military voters.

          The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

          – Ralph Waldo Emerson
          by: michmark @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:49:07 PM CST

          Reply
  3. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    about the question that was brought up earlier…
    A couple years ago, I had requested an absentee ballot for an election. Then I decided to show up and vote in person. I had make a mistake on my absentee ballot.
    I ripped up my absentee ballot and threw it in my wastebasket. Then I went to my polling place to vote.

    They told me that they needed my absentee ballot. I had to go home and get it. Which I did. I turned it in, and they marked it down as “spoiled.”

    After that, they let me vote.

    Live and learn!

    by: Rosemary F @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:53:01 PM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      We need to really change voting practices…
      Everybody should get to vote mail in or in person all week. This new stand in line for hours poll tax needs to go, sooner rather than later.
      by: dkmich @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:32:24 AM CST

      Reply
    2. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      This could be a problem, if they show up to vote without the ballot
      they may not be allowed to vote if I understand the law correctly.
      by: Gaspare @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 08:32:47 AM CST

      Reply

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