MarkGrebner.Org

Ever clueless, McCotter creates Dem pickup chance!

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by

Violet
in
by: Grebner

Fri May 25, 2012 at 21:05:03 PM EDT

To quote from MIRS:

 “BREAKING NEWS: SOS: McCotter Short on Sigs -U.S. Rep. Thad McCOTTER (R-Livonia) does not have the 1,000 valid signatures needed to make the 2012 primary ballot, according to a Secretary of State (SOS) spokeswoman this evening.”

If this is correct, all hell is abour to break loose.  For one thing, there’s already a tea-party Republican candidate (Kerry Bentivolio) on the ballot, who seems likely to become the Republican nominee, and who would be likely to make the seat competitive in the fall.

For another, the screwup almost certainly reflects McCotter’s own lack of diligence and competence, which may make the Republican establishment leery of putting their muscle behind getting him through a write-in campaign in the primary, which will only be possible if Bentivolio is left to his own devices.  If the national network of crazies becomes involved, I’d say Bentivolio is unstoppable – in the primary.

For a third, the just and upright Republican majority on the Supreme Court is likely to look for some way to fix the problem with the peititiions, whatever it was.

And, finally, Mark Brewer is bound to be at the center of Dem efforts to take advantage, which will mean… uh … well …. a great chance to observe genius applied to a difficult and high-stakes problem.

The Democratic candidate, for those who care, are:

Bill Roberts, who proudly touts his connection to Lyndon Larouche and the tin-foil-hat caucus.

Syed Taj, a medical doctor and native of India, who was elected to the Canton Twp board in 2008.  Not a hopeless, but also maybe not exactly what Waterford Twp is looking for in a Congressional candidate. 

Comments

21 responses to “Ever clueless, McCotter creates Dem pickup chance!”

  1. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    David Trott
    MIRS says foreclosure attorney David Trott is being bandied around as a potential candidate.
    In a couple ways, the task Republicans have is similar to, but even more difficult than, what Democrats are facing in Roy Schmidt’s district. For one, Republicans need to beat a candidate who is already on the ballot, as opposed to getting a 5% threshold. Plus, the district is obviously bigger. But for the Party of Palin and Romney, money won’t be a big problem.

    We shall see.

    Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

    by: ScottyUrb @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 01:48:23 AM UTC

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      You can write this down: David Trott will not be the nominee.
      Unless the Republican establishment has Bentivollo assassinated (and that’s a rare tactic, even for Republicans), they can’t beat him through a write-in. Convincing 20000 people (the absolute minimum conceivable successful tally) to write in the name of somebody they’ve never heard of is, well, not easy.
      Worse, I bet Bentivollo doesn’t think of himself as a nuisance candidate – more likely he will think this is his reward for putting in the effort to collect all those signatures. I further bet McCotter will continue causing trouble, since he can certainly blame somebody else for the screwup. And as long as he’s in Congress – and a member of the majority – he won’t have trouble raising money. Finally, there are bound to be additional wannabes, some of whom have not yet heard that destiny has been trying to reach them over the Memorial Day weekend.

      In my experience, political parties in this situation generally end up humiliating themselves, demonstrating their utter unfitness to deal with a genuine emergency.

      This is yet another situation where I say “Give me $250,000 and I could fix this.”. There is a need for clear thinking, decisiveness, and unity – none of which are easy to come by on May 25 of an even-numbered year.

      by: Grebner @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 04:11:02 AM UTC

      Reply
  2. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    So much for his intellect…
    We should compile a list of pundits who lauded him as a presidential candidate on the strength of his intellect so we know the names of people to never again take seriously. Even if he winds up having enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, the fact that this even happened is telling.

    Among the Trees
    by: Eric B. @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 02:46:27 AM UTC

    Reply
  3. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Timing of the release.
    It barely needs to be said that the Bureau of Elections doesn’t normally release information at 8pm Friday before a three-day weekend. It’s clear the timing was coordinated between McCotter and Land, with an eye toward minimizing McCotter’s bad press.
    We still have no idea what the underlying problem was, but I’m beginning to suspect something more like a ripoff rather than bungling. The initial count of 2000 (twice the number needed) would have been determined by SoS personnel, not the campaign. I can’t think of any normal phenomenon that could reduce 2000 apparently valid signatures to a number far short of 1000.

    The best I’ve been able to imagine is that McCotter hired somebody to collect signatures, but only a few hundred were actually collected. Then the sheets were copied several times, and submitted as if nobody would ever bother to check them.

    That’s probably not exactly what happened, but at least it connects all the dots. The timing of the release makes clear that McCotter wasn’t an entirely innocent victim – when the facts come out, they must make him look even dumber than we thought him to be.

    by: Grebner @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 13:32:59 PM UTC

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Land? You must mean Johnson
      She’s someone even more likely to do a Friday afternoon infodump than Land. As for minimizing the bad press, the story still got into the Free Press.
      Thaddeus McCotter may not appear on election ballot

      Finally, I like your idea better than any of mine. I just thought it was carelessness among both the petition circulators and signers resulting in multiple people signing more than once. I can’t imagine that high a level of incompetence among that many people.

      Greetings from Detroit, Ground Zero of the post-industrial future!

      by: Neon Vincent @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 15:23:44 PM UTC

      Reply
      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        I was proud of myself not to call her Candace Miller
        I have trouble keeping brain-dead right-wing Republcian female Secretaries of State straight. Thanks for correcting me.
        by: Grebner @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 16:42:33 PM UTC

        Reply
  4. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    I agree, it is hard to imagine how 2000 signatures nets fewer than 1000
    valid ones. Volunteers who are not used to circulating petitions will, in my experience, produce about 85% valid signatures. It certainly means that no competent person was overseeing the process, doing data entry, checking and removing invalid signatures & duplicates before submission — which is a bedrock task for any campaign.
    Here is another scenario: McCotter delegates this unimportant, low-level task to a recent hire, who knows nothing. This person recruits circulators from McCotter’s existing volunteer list — people within his old district. They circulate the petitions in their neighborhoods — areas that are mostly not in his new district. No one ever checks the newbie’s work.

    How much did McCotter’s district change? Enough for this to be plausible?

    by: memiller @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 15:58:14 PM UTC

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      I don’t think that’s what happened.
      Mind you, I don’t know what DID happen, but I don’t think it was well-intentioned but clueless volunteers.
      Alan Fox, who does all the real work at PPC, points out that the initial count does NOT come from SoS staff, but simply copies whatever the candidate says on his filing paperwork.

      In my experience, if you circulate a petition in the wrong area, for every 100 people you approach, maybe 50 will sign the petition, while 5 will tell you that you’re in the wrong place. That means in the course of collecting 1000 bad signatures, you’d be told something like 100 times that you’re in the old district, but not inside the new one. Not everybody knows, but enough to make it impossible to continue innocently.

      We’re already seeing a battle developing between Trott and McCotter, over who should be the write-in choice of the Republican Establishment. Since the AV ballots – which are crucial to a write-in campaign of this sort – will be mailed in about 20 days, the chances of a train wreck are improving apace.

      by: Grebner @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 16:50:32 PM UTC

      Reply
      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        In defense of my hypothesis:
        “I’m not sure what happened,” said McCotter, who made a brief presidential run last fall. “We used the same team of volunteers we always do, and handled everything the same way. This isn’t our first go-round.”
        From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/art…

        So your idea that it was deadbeat hirelings appears to be contradicted by the candidate.

        They handled everything the same way. The only variable? Redistricting.

        by: memiller @ Sat May 26, 2012 at 18:46:27 PM UTC

        Reply
        1. Violet Avatar
          Violet

          BINGO!
          MIRS says my guess was correct. The submitted petitions include a small number of apparently real signatures, which were copied (and sometimes altered) again and again, to pad them to 2000.
          And – surprise! – McCotter won’t say who actually collected them, since “they” are too close to him to attack safely.

          Scam, not sloppiness.

          by: Grebner @ Tue May 29, 2012 at 17:02:37 PM UTC

          Reply
  5. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Additional fishiness
    I don’t think we can figure anything out by close examination of statements made by McCotter and/or Secretary of State spokespersons, since it’s clear they both know exactly what happened, and are playing games with us. But it IS fascinating to observe the timing of their statements.
    To start with, McCotter, who is junketing in Hawaii, is allowed to release the initial “OOPS!” at 8pm Friday, before a holiday weekend. As I said before, ain’t nobody working at the Elections Bureau at such a time, who might only then have noticed a discrepancy. My guess is that the problem – whatever it is – was discovered at least a day earlier, but after a discussion between Johnson and McCotter, this is how they decided to release it. McCotter is obviously doing everything he can to bury the news, and to take advantage of as much time as possible to maneuver before the rest of the world can get its hands on the petitions.

    Today – Memorial Day – we read that a Secretary of State spokesperson was supposedly available SUNDAY (of a three-day holiday weekend!) to vaguely suggest that fraud “might” be involved. But the same spokesperson can’t supply any details whatever – no copies of petitions, for example.

    As a result of the timing of the initial release, the story broke in the Saturday paper, which has to be among the twenty least-read days of the year. As a result of yesterday’s “fraud” announcement, that story breaks into print on Memorial Day. By this Thursday, when the Freep and News again publish a regular edition, it will all be “old news”, if McCotter is lucky. I suppose Ruth told him she really couldn’t hold it until next Christmas, which would have been his first choice.

    A few technical notes: First, because nobody challenged these petitions, there would not have been any effort to locate duplicate signatures, unless for some reason they popped out on casual inspection. If the Elections Bureau has become aware of duplication, it must be part of some larger problem. Second, it wouldn’t be even possible to collect enough duplicate signatures to bring the valid total down by 50%, unless something very weird was going on. Some people will sign a petition twice, but many others will remember the previous encounter and refuse. Finally, the suggestion of “fraud” (made against a fellow Republican, no less) pretty well eliminates the half-plausible possibility that the main problem was that the petitions were mistakenly circulated within the boundaries of the old district.

    I’m betting that we’ll know what the problem is within ten minutes of getting copies of the petitions – I’m sure there’s something obviously wrong.

    by: Grebner @ Mon May 28, 2012 at 13:03:24 PM UTC

    Reply
  6. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    How the process works
    Some information that informs Mark’s observations, some of which has not been explicitly stated:
    The stated figure of 2000 filed signatures comes from McCotter’s affidavit. It has not been confirmed and has no legal status. One possibility is that far fewer signatures were actually filed, few enough to make some combination of other factors relevant.

    The Bureau of Elections did not review these signatures to verify that the signers are registered voters. There are only three circumstances under which they would:
    (1) A recall petition. Every signature on a recall petition is checked.
    (2) In the case of a statewide ballot initiative, only those signatures drawn as part of a sample from which validity is calculated.
    (3) Signatures challenged in a formal challenge. So far as we know no challenge was filed.

    Because the Bureau did not review the signatures to determine registration status it has no way to determine whether duplicate signatures were filed. All the discussion about duplicates is a smokescreen or misdirection.

    The one thing the Bureau has done is to conduct what is called a ‘face check.’ In this review, signatures may be disallowed only if they are invalid without any need to check the signer’s registration status. If a signer dates their signature after the circulator’s date — out. If a signer does not include a street address — out. If a signer lists an address outside of the district — out.

    Every signature disqualified by the Bureau has been disqualified for one of these or for a similar reason. That is all they have checked and will check and they found enough to knock the total number of signatures below 1,000.

    We are all reading between the lines, and we will know more early tomorrow, but I think the problem will turn out to be a combination of some or all of the following factors:
    (1) Far fewer than 2,000 signatures were filed.
    (2) A large number of the filed signatures were from voters in the portions of McCotter’s district that have been removed in redistricting — this includes large areas of Wayne County, which was McCotter’s base in the old district.
    (3) There are the usual number of missing dates, incomplete circulator statements and other mistakes that afflict every petition drive.
    (4) The references to duplicates may mean that photocopies of many pages got mixed into the submission; that is the only way I can come up with that duplicates could be involved.

    These are all issues that would have been detected by the Bureau staff. Note that McCotter has not been blustering about technical requirements or inflexible bureaucrats — even he appears to realize that his campaign’s failure is clear.

    by: alanfox @ Mon May 28, 2012 at 16:19:50 PM UTC

    Reply
  7. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    McCotter’s Detroit News editorial this morning:
    http://www.detroitnews.com/art…
    An extended “It’s a Wonderful Life” metaphor:

    Now I feel like George Bailey after Uncle Billy admitted he lost the money. Like George, knowing my misplaced trust has negatively impacted so many people is heartrending. Unlike George, I am not tempted to jump off a bridge.
    Bottom line, he agrees they are insufficient, will not contest it, and is going ahead with a write-in campaign.

    While I will not speculate on how this surreal outcome has happened – pending the appropriate state review – I will say that, regardless of how the insufficiencies and possible irregularities occurred, the buck stops here with me for the failure to file sufficient petition signatures.

    by: memiller @ Tue May 29, 2012 at 12:48:17 PM UTC

    Reply
  8. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    McCotter’s version of events.
    Let’s see: Although he’s apparently the only person outside the Elections Bureau who has been briefed on what’s wrong with his petitions, he doesn’t know anything about it. And he has no desire to question the determination that his petitions are defective; he simply accepts that decision and moves on. That sounds like the meed Thad McCotter we all know and love, sure.
    Pretty soon, this charade will come to its logical end, as soon as somebody not trying to protect him gets their hands on the petitions, and publishes what they find. The write-in campaign is a fantasy. McCotter will be laughed at for seven months. And then forgotten.

    Pretty soon, the two national campaign committees will realize they face a genuine horserace, between our East Indian physician, and their Tea Party true believer. Which can be re-shaped most quickly into a plausible image of a real candidate for Congress? Which will turn out to have a past that doesn’t completely disqualify him? This is a campaign where Op Research is likely to decide who wins. Our guy gets speech training, so he can imitate a typical Canton Twp accent. Their guy gets drilled on staying on message, and leaving the black helicopters out of his answers to press questions.

    Should be interesting.

    by: Grebner @ Tue May 29, 2012 at 13:40:10 PM UTC

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      lots of indians in the 11th
      intentionally or not, the new district combines the communities of novi, troy, and canton, which have some of the highest concentrations of indian americans. As a prominent medical doctor, Dr. Taj should have real cross-over appeal to non-indians as well. Given that indians are over represented in the medical community, his appearance and accent (if he even has one) might actually reinforce his branding as the doctor candidate.
      by: ibelieveinMichigan @ Tue May 29, 2012 at 19:33:10 PM UTC

      Reply
      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        Glad to hear it.
        But I’d still work on making him white-bread enough for Independence Twp. He doesn’t have to be fake, but he shouldn’t be excessively genuine, either.
        by: Grebner @ Tue May 29, 2012 at 20:59:55 PM UTC

        Reply
  9. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Independence Township is in the 8th District
    http://www.michigan.gov/docume…

    “I never did give anybody hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell.” — Harry S Truman
    by: Butch Snider @ Tue May 29, 2012 at 21:05:07 PM UTC

    Reply
  10. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    I really mean “He’s got to play in Peoria”.
    Lyon Twp? City of Wixom? Groveland? I know the districts are screwy, but eventually, I’ll name one that’s really within the new boundaries…
    by: Grebner @ Tue May 29, 2012 at 21:28:27 PM UTC

    Reply
  11. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Having met and spoken with Dr. Taj many times…
    …there is no chance any amount of “training” will make him “white-bread enough” to appeal to a semi-rural Oakland County voter so narrow-minded that he or she would cast a vote on that basis.
    Of course, I doubt that any of Dr. Taj’s roads to victory involve winning among the Lakes and various semi-rural Oakland County townships.

    He’ll need big wins by President Obama and Senator Stabenow, big turnout by the Dem base, and for Bentivolio to be as bad a candidate as the MIGOP apparently thinks he is.

    [It is funny to see their panicky “OMG what do we do NOW?” reactions — reaching out to David Trott, Rocky Raczkowski throwing his hat back in (Why not? It’s no tougher than spelling “Lisa Murkowski,” amirite?), and so on.

    What about Sen. Mike Kowall, who actually represents the Lakes and various semi-rural Oakland County townships and who wanted to challenge Thaddeus but pussed out? Is he smart enough to pass, or bored enough to go for it knowing he gets to stay in the Senate if he fails?]

    “The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.” ~ Harlan Ellison

    by: helzapoppn @ Thu May 31, 2012 at 21:19:11 PM UTC

    Reply
  12. Dante2698 Avatar
    Dante2698

    Good https://is.gd/tpjNyL

    Reply
  13. Miles548 Avatar
    Miles548

    Good https://t.ly/tndaA

    Reply

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