MarkGrebner.Org

Time for a new round of guesses about Jan. 15 turnout.

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by

Violet
in
by: Grebner

Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 19:25:32 PM EST

 I’ve been looking at the rates of applying for, and returning, absentee ballots for next Tuesday’s “election”.   I’ve been suprised by the sizeable Democratic turnout, even among people I have previously identified as Republican-leaning. 

 I hereby renounce my previous estimates, in favor of 650,000 Democratic votes and 900,000 Republican.  (With a garnish of 20,000 for neither party.

Everybody is welcome to demonstrate their punditry by posting their own guesses, including critiques.

 The previous guesses will be judged separately, with due consideration for their being made before Iowa.

Comments

6 responses to “Time for a new round of guesses about Jan. 15 turnout.”

  1. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Turnout
    Your current estimates sound roughly similar to my estimates about six weeks ago when I said we’d have well over a half million people voting in the Democratic primary and even more voting Republican. If these estimates come true, there is no way anyone can claim this primary was less than a success. This would be record turnout for a primary in modern Michigan political history.
    My methods? Feminine intuition and savy political instinct! I’d be happy to e-mail a bit of that to Nazgul if he hasn’t had his fill from this blog.

    by: northernlib @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 18:58:40 PM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Feminine intuition
      is that compatible with IP networks?
      and:

      …there is no way anyone can claim this primary was less than a success.
      Just watch us!

      by: memiller @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 20:24:58 PM CST

      Reply
    2. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Turnout
      An Uncommitted vote is still a vote for the Democratic side of the primary in my book. The early primary and Clinton may be linked in the minds of some bloggers, but turnout is turnout and if Clinton gets buried under a wave of Uncommitted voters, that’s her loss but yet a major achievement for the Michigan Democratic Party in pushing for an early primary. I doubt Mr. Brewer is going to go to bed disappointed if 700,000 people vote in his primary that only had half the candidates on the ballot and many were dismissing as meaningless. Those Uncommitted delegates, regardless of the bodies that fill the positions, will almost exclusively be voting for the nominee picked by the other 49 states assuming the DNC caves -which we all know will happen regardless of the accomodations our delegates will stay in.
      by: northernlib @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 21:28:50 PM CST

      Reply
  2. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    I’ve already talked with 3 people
    who spoiled their ballots by writing in Obama or Edwards.
    Imagine what turnout could have been if we’d have had a DNC-sanctioned caucus or primary with all the candidates.

    Truely a lost opportunity to bring in tons of new voters. And it will cost about $15 million, galvanize Republicans, and allow for the recall of two Michigan House Dems which might flip the House. And of course, no Michigan issues were heard since the candidates didn’t come here.

    Good going Jennifer and Debbie!!!

    West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

    by: philgoblue @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 19:35:08 PM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      DNC endorsed primary
      If we would have had the Feb 9 primary nobody would show up because it will be over with by then. If the poll numbers coming out of Iowa hold up it will be over tomorrow.(On the Dems side).
      I’ll stick with my prediction of 1 mill Republican 1/2 mill Dems.

      The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

      – Ralph Waldo Emerson

      by: michmark @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 20:23:56 PM CST

      Reply
      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        Can revote
        phil, tell your friends than can request another absentee ballot if they spoiled their first one. This is according to this article in the FREEP:
        http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs…

        The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

        – Ralph Waldo Emerson

        by: michmark @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 06:15:05 AM CST

        Reply

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