The Michigan Democratic Primary — The Math, Part II

(From Alan Fox, partner, Practical Political Consulting.)

These delegates will be selected under state party rules beginning in March.  Whether they are seated is an entirely different question.

The election returns by congressional district are posted at the Elections Division web site.  They will change over the next week or so as errors are corrected and as counties’ official results replace these unofficial election night returns.  Occasionally a county’s changes will be quite substantial.  Some changes were, in fact, posted as I was copying these figures off, with a result that these statewide totals are different from anything as yet posted.

Here are the important numbers, as of about 9:00 a.m.:

CD CLINTON UNCOMM  TOTAL CPCT UPCT DEL Clint Uncom
1   19553   9150  30249 64.6 30.2   5  3    2
2   16427  10174  27834 59.0 36.6   5  3    2
3   14957  12732  28976 51.6 43.9   5  3    2
4   17376   9400  28136 61.8 33.4   5  3    2
5   22558  14493  38219 59.0 37.9   6  4    2
6   15822  11031  28221 56.1 39.1   5  3    2
7   16665   9921  28125 59.3 35.3   5  3    2
8   20098  13684  35832 56.1 38.2   6  4    2
9   25864  20074  48545 53.3 41.4   6  3    3
10   24278  11930  37982 63.9 31.4   5  3    2
11   26809  16606  45763 58.6 36.3   5  3    2
12   30879  22386  55795 55.3 40.1   6  3*   3
13   29674  29004  60673 48.9 47.8   6  3    3
14   33334  35000  70537 47.3 49.6   7  3    4
15   28591  20747  52898 54.0 39.2   6  3*   3

AL  342885 246332 617785 55.5 39.9  28 16   12
PL                                  17 10    7

GRAND TOTAL                       128  73   55

The first three columns are raw votes for Clinton, Uncommitted and the total of all votes.  Note that in no place do any other candidates come close to the qualifying percentage for delegates so they have been omitted.  The Clinton and Uncommitted percentages are proportions of the total.  The next column has the total number of delegates to be allocated.  At the bottom, AL refers to the at-large delegates and PL to the pledged party leader delegates, both of which are apportioned statewide based on the statewide total of votes.  The last two columns are the delegate allocations for each pool between Clinton and Uncommitted.

The stars in the Clinton column in CDs 12 and 15 indicates that in each district Clinton is just a little short of the votes needed to win a fourth delegate (and Uncommitted is close to losing a delegate).  These are the districts where even a small change from the unofficial to official totals could affect delegate totals.

In any event we will next go through the process of electing these delegates.  Anybody interested in the process should consult the delegate selection plan at the MDP website.  I would just note that February 28 is the deadline for a candidate for delegate to file that intent with the state party.  As in the election no write-ins or other late starters will be allowed.