Michigan Primary Part 2: Who Cares?

by: TomChoske

Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 12:59:33 PM EST

This Michigan Primary situation has gone from bad to worse.  It was bad enough that the Legislature, fully aware of the candidates’ decisions to boycott our state and the censorship from both the Republican and Democratic parties, decided to spend over $10 million of our dollars on this January 15th mistake, and then withhold the information from the very people who put up the money: the public! Now, just as there was beginning to be hope that Michigan delegates would be re-enfranchised with the close race, this issue of another, ‘do-over’ caucus/primary/who-knows comes up. Should we do one? Will it count? Who will pay? What form will it take? If we do one, how will it be administered: by the state or by the party?

Governor Granholm’s got her plan for a ‘firehouse’ primary: a semi-open primary that would be done at community gathering places with a relatively low cost that would have to be shouldered by the state parties.  Some throw out the idea of a party-run caucus. James Carville has publicly stated that he will raise $15 million (if the Obama campaign agrees to do the same thing) to contribute to the primary and cover campaign costs.  Obama’s people have been non-committal, and Senator Levin (a Clinton supporter) agrees with Senator Clinton that the vote from January 15th should be honored and that’s that.

Everyone and their brother seems to have an opinion one way or another, most of them formed not out of reason, but from a feeling of being slighted. So far there are only two progressive ideas I have heard: one, from Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, an associate professor of political science at Wayne State University, is to re-enfranchise our delegates and commit them 50/50 for Obama and Clinton. The other is from Mark Grebner, whereby we would do a mail-in primary, with low costs for everyone involved. This would also eliminate many of the barriers that exist with traditional polling places: harassment, wrongful disenfranchisement, and the inability of low-income citizens and seniors to turn out in as great number as their younger and wealthier counterparts.

I have another idea: IT DOESN’T MATTER.  A lesson in DNC politics: all delegates are only bound to their stated preference for the first round of balloting. After that, it’s anyone’s game. Therefore, if Michigan splits 50/50 for the first round of balloting, or if another proportion is found through a new primary, or if the results of Jan. 15th are upheld, it doesn’t matter. There are bound to be multiple rounds of balloting, with an intense floor battle that will render any apportionment we can think of moot. Some may complain that this is un-democratic; if so, it is the system’s fault rather than Michigan’s. We should not unfairly burden our people for another election that will not hold much water. Grebner’s plan is solid and provides the best compromise between the unfortunate reality of the DNC system and the preciousness of our tax dollars, while Mrs. Sarbaugh-Thompson’s plan would also be sufficient. Personally, I think the original primary should be honored, as the Uncommitted delegates in Michigan’s delegation hold a great deal of power, being able to make up their own minds and give the Superdelegates a small challenge.  


Comments

7 responses to “Michigan Primary Part 2: Who Cares?”

  1. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    You’re VERY wrong on the multiple ballot thing
    “TomChoske” wrote:
    There are bound to be multiple rounds of balloting,
    If there are only 2 candidates, and, thus, only 2 positions, it will be impossible to have more than ONE ballot–since because there are only 2 positions–one will have to garner a majority on the first ballot.

    It’s logistically impossible to have a second ballot barring a mass abstention by a block of Super-delegates that throws the convention into chaos. That is completely inconceivable.

    “Those who attempt to censor free speech by filtering the Internet, are… the… TRUE… “tiny cats” of cyberspace.”

    by: detroit tiger @ Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 12:30:56 PM CDT

    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      in addition
      delegates aren’t bound at all, not even for the first ballot. they are, however vetted by the campaigns…
      by: Jon Koller @ Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 20:15:40 PM CDT

    2. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      There will be multiple ballotting
      All campaigns have the ability to call for another round of balloting. They usually do unless the race is entirely one-sided. For instance, if Obama gets 2100 and Clinton gets about 1900, Clinton will call for another round. The results may change. Look at 1960 for the Dems, or 76 for the Republicans, to see what a floor fight entails, even if there are only two candidates.
      by: TomChoske @ Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 09:06:09 AM CDT

  2. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    It does matter
    if they seat Michigan’s delegates, which I am against unless the conform to the rules for a very simple reason.
    Precedence.

    Michigan and Florida, in their zeal to embarrass the DNC to draw attention to the unfairness of Iowa and New Hampshire holding to big a role in the process have, in essence, given those two states all the courage they need to ignore any future selection process that attempts to solve this…

    If Michigan and Florida are allowed to seat their delegates without being punished.

    Figure it out…it is called the law of unintended consequences.

    Should we be allowed to violate the rules because we are important swing states and candidates can not afford to insult the voters of these two states…how does this not also apply to Iowa and New Hampshire?

    Clearly, if we are allowed to seat our delegates from the illegal primary, Iowa and New Hampshire will violate any future agreement reached.

    Michigan, in attempting to protest Iowa and NH will have given them the tool they need to undermine any future primary solution…

    It does matter…and Michigan should not be allowed to violate the rules….PERIOD.

    by: Nazgul35 @ Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 11:30:35 AM CDT

  3. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    You’re wrong. Multiple ballots are impossible
    “Tom Choske” Wrote:
    *[new] There will be multiple ballotting
    All campaigns have the ability to call for another round of balloting. They usually do unless the race is entirely one-sided.

    Let’s assume, for the sake of this exercise, MI and FL delegates aren’t seated, the magic number for nomination is 2,025, and, niether Clinton or Obama have the 2,025 and the superdelegates decide things.
    On the first ballot, IF EVERYBODY VOTES, there simply MUST be a result in which one candidate recieves at least 2,025 or more. (The ONLY possibility of there not being a majority reached on the first ballot would be–if a block of delegates staged a mass abstention–this is inconceivable and impossible given the dynamic of a 2-person race).
    For instance, if Obama gets 2100 and Clinton gets about 1900, Clinton will call for another round. The results may change.
    This example, and statement, is ridiculous. If the Magic number is 2,025 and Obama gets 2,100–he’ll be the nominee. Period! If, FL and MI were added, and the Magic number was around 2,200, a split of 2100/1900 would be impossible–unless you delusionally believe, that under that scenario, 400 delegates would abstain. Impossible.
    Look at 1960 for the Dems, or 76 for the Republicans, to see what a floor fight entails, even if there are only two candidates.
    I know what a floor fight entails. You can have all the floor fight you want, but, in the end, if there are only 2 positions, there will be only ONE ballot.

    “Those who attempt to censor free speech by filtering the Internet, are… the… TRUE… “tiny cats” of cyberspace.”
    by: detroit tiger @ Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 13:14:57 PM CDT

    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      You’re both right You’re both right (0.00 / 0)
      A brokered convention (multiple ballots), while unlikely this year, is still possible. There is a possibility a number of the automatic delegate may not vote on the first round to get a sense of where the other automatic delegates are at. People tend to think of the automatic delegates as one block being driven by the same forces. This certainly is not true. Also, there are 26 pledged Edwards delegates. While they represent only one half of one percent, if the race was that close and they sat out the first ballot at Edward’s direction, there could be more than one ballot. Both these scenarios are unlikely, but then most of us thought the present situation would have been unlikely a couple months ago.
      We need to keep in mind the convention isn’t tomorrow. There are still a dozen contests yet including Pennsylvania late next month. If either candidate were to win Pennsylvania with a solid victory it likely would push enough automatic delegates into their camp (for very different reasons) to resolve the fight for the nomination. And this is assuming there aren’t re-dos on the horizon in MI and FL.

      by: Brady @ Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 13:54:05 PM CDT
      A brokered convention (multiple ballots), while unlikely this year, is still possible. There is a possibility a number of the automatic delegate may not vote on the first round to get a sense of where the other automatic delegates are at. People tend to think of the automatic delegates as one block being driven by the same forces. This certainly is not true. Also, there are 26 pledged Edwards delegates. While they represent only one half of one percent, if the race was that close and they sat out the first ballot at Edward’s direction, there could be more than one ballot. Both these scenarios are unlikely, but then most of us thought the present situation would have been unlikely a couple months ago.
      We need to keep in mind the convention isn’t tomorrow. There are still a dozen contests yet including Pennsylvania late next month. If either candidate were to win Pennsylvania with a solid victory it likely would push enough automatic delegates into their camp (for very different reasons) to resolve the fight for the nomination. And this is assuming there aren’t re-dos on the horizon in MI and FL.

      by: Brady @ Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 13:54:05 PM CDT

      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        I addressed that earlier
        In my original post in this thread I wrote this:
        It’s logistically impossible to have a second ballot barring a mass abstention by a block of Super-delegates that throws the convention into chaos. That is completely inconceivable.
        Obviously, any significant number of first-ballot abstentions, that render both candidates short of the nomination, would force a subsequent ballot.

        It just seems highly unlikely, if not impossible at this point.

        It’s one of those things that fall into the realm of “anything’s possible” (for instance “the moon landing was faked”, “the Pope’s an alien”, etc…)

        Sure, ANYTHING’S possible. But, I’d say a multiple ballot in Denver (for any number of political and logistic reasons), is, essentially, impossible.

        “Those who attempt to censor free speech by filtering the Internet, are… the… TRUE… “tiny cats” of cyberspace.”

        by: detroit tiger @ Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 14:09:44 PM CDT

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