MarkGrebner.Org

Florida Draft Vote-By-Mail plan for Re-Do

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Violet
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by: Grebner

Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 05:15:07 AM EDT

Here it is – poached from the Miami Herald, via MyDD.com. Since the DNC is the real force pushing for a re-do in both states, it wouldn’t surprise me if the plan in Michigan shares some features.

 I have to say the Florida plan includes some good ideas, including opening store-front voting centers in low-income areas.  If money is available (several million dollars) for such centers in Michigan, I’d suggest the emphasis be on high-traffic/high-visibility including downtowns and major malls.

 The plan I put forward was designed to hold down the costs, so it would be feasible to conduct the balloting with money raised by selling access rights to the data, but it appears “soft money” will be made available to cover such costs – in low-eight-figures.

 My interest is trying to figure out how to create a workable alternative to the mess created by the Jan 15 election, not in supporting either candidate.  But I note the occurence of nearly identical media events in both Michigan and Florida, where groups of “semi-authorized spokespersons” supporting Obama announced they were opposed to holding a do-over, for various reasons which sound bogus to me.  In each case, the national Obama campaign announced the group didn’t reflect their official position, but were only speaking for themselves.  I suspect those announcements were contrived to stake bargaining positions, which I suppose is fair given the Clinton campaign’s continued insistence that the January 15 results should somehow be implemented.

 I assume we’re going to see a draft voting plan in Michigan very soon.  The biggest difference is likely to be how ballots are distributed.  Since Florida has party registration, they can simply mail to every Democrat in the state.  In Michigan, the process will hinge on how applications are distributed, and the exact requirements for applying.

 For what it’s worth, Intrade.com has opened a betting market on whether Florida and Michigan will actually hold do-over elections, and in each state the betting is about 1-to-2 they will.  That is, about a 67% chance.

Comments

15 responses to “Florida Draft Vote-By-Mail plan for Re-Do”

  1. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Opposition
    Do you think this will get through the legislature? Mike Bishop’s not known for doing the right thing at the right time, and this sounds just like the budget for him: a great time to screw over the Dems. Also, do you think that Brewer and Co could get the entire election put together on time if they circumvent the Leg?
    by: TomChoske @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 09:24:55 AM CDT

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Doesn’t need legislative approval
      I see in today’s Freep talk about having an actual public election, with costs reimbursed by political fundraising. Surely, that will never work. It would take a 2/3 vote, because of the need for “immediate effect”. Even overwhelming support in both houses would not be enough, because various groups would realize this was must-have, right-now, so they would withhold their votes to bargain for some issue they’ve been trying to push through. Totally impossible.
      But the proposal I’ve made, and also the proposal I expect to see from Carl Levin’s task force, is entirely private, and doesn’t require any legislation to make it possible.

      by: Grebner @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 10:28:12 AM CDT

      Reply
  2. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    A good comment from mydd.com
    I think this person brings up some pretty legitimate points.
    http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…

    by: jakedecker @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 10:07:07 AM CDT

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      I hadn’t thought of the Voting Rights Act problem
      Because Florida is required to pre-clear any legislation pertaining to elections, their plan to conduct an “election” using government resources is likely to make it unworkable, and certainly creates additional opportunity for game-playing.
      None of that applies in Michigan, since there’s no chance of holding an “election”; if we do anything, it will be non-governmental, and it will certainly not need pre-clearance – or any clearance.

      by: Grebner @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 10:34:33 AM CDT

      Reply
  3. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Who is in and who is out?
    Though the Obama people, in my opinion, have not articulated this very well, a “do over” caucus raises questions about who gets to vote and who doesn’t. Lines will have to be drawn, and that line drawing process may tick off more people than are ticked off now.
    For instance: is it wide open for every qualified Michigan elector, whether they voted the first time or not? If wide open, people that didn’t vote the first time get another chance, which is fine. However, people that did vote (especially those that jumped to the Republican side as their Democratic vote “would not count”), get two chances. This invites mischief (ala Hannity-Limbaugh style), and creates a perfectly legal – but philosiphically strange situation – of allowing some people (not all) to vote in each party’s primary.

    Is is limited to just primary voters who selected the Democratic ballot? We know exactly who they are (as you well know), and that’s certainly a place where a line may be drawn. However, that will raise the ire of those that stayed home in reliance on Edwards’, Hillary’s, Richardson’s, Biden’s and Obama’s promises to us that the votes would not count. I personally know a number of good Democrats that “washed their hands” of the whole thing in protest over the entire mess.

    The “50-50” idea at least comports with the deal made at the outset (that the votes wouldn’t count), and allows some of that traditional patronage and other political stuff (the straw hats, noise makers, giant blue foam “mittens”) that rides along with the Michigan delegation to the big show every four years.

    by: Bluesman Johnson @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 12:59:13 PM CDT

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Actually, we DON’T know who voted Democratic on Jan 15
      The information from that primary has been collected by the Secretary of State, but the Federal District Court has ordered them not to provide it to anybody until a hearing is held March 26. If the court decides to overturn the statute – which I expect – the Secretary of State has declared they won’t release the data to anyone until a court orders them to do so.
      In short, the information MAY be available in time for use, but it may not be.

      by: Grebner @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 13:09:20 PM CDT

      Reply
      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        Thanks
        Thanks. I didn’t know or had not heard that you (or those fighting the statute) took your case to the federal court. I had assumed (based on what our S. Ct. did), that the “list” would somehow form a starting point for the party on the issue of who is in and who is out of a do-over Michigan caucus.
        Does the fact that there effectively is no “list” at this point complicate the “who’s in” question? Am I the only one asking it?

        Thanks again.

        by: Bluesman Johnson @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 14:00:28 PM CDT

        Reply
        1. Violet Avatar
          Violet

          The Federal suit challenging 2007 PA 52.
          I’m not a plaintiff in the Federal action, although I have been following it very closely.
          The only thing anybody can really say about the list of people who voted in each party is that it’s not available now, and it’s completely uncertain when it will be.

          by: Grebner @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 18:27:20 PM CDT

          Reply
  4. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    To Be Fair
    I think a do-over clearly favors Clinton, mainly because it gives her at least the opportunity to make up some ground in the delegate count. That being said, I think her campaign is justified in pushing for it. On the other hand, I completely understand the Obama campaign not being enthusiastic about the idea of a do-over. As an Obama supporter, I do feel as though the Clinton campaign has said and done some pretty low things in this campaign, and am worried that they will try to “steal” the nomination from him. There are objective arguments in favor of do-overs as well, such as including and engaging democratic voters in those states, which would benefit the party as a whole in November. I just think that those arguments coming from the Clinton campaign are disingenuous.
    by: petrolcide @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 13:35:46 PM CDT

    Reply
  5. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    To Keep Michigan Blue We Must Find a Way to Have Our Votes Count
    Democrats must come up with a solution to the mess that both the state party and the D.N.C. created. If our delegates are not seated at the convention either by having a new vote that is open to all or going with the January 15th results Michigan will go for McCain in the fall.
    If our eventual nominee whoever it may be obstructs us from having our voices and votes heard at the convention I as a lifelong Democrat will cast my vote for John McCain. The last republican that I voted for was William Milliken. There is no way that I would support a Democrat who was a party to my disenfranchisement.
    So, Carl Levin, Jennifer Granholm, Ron Gettelfinger, Debbie Dingell, the Michigan Obama campaign and the Michigan Clinton campaign….WORK IT OUT.

    by: tom in dexter @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 20:11:32 PM CDT

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      There is no way I’ll be voting for McSame
      but other than that I agree with what you are saying. It would not be easy to keep Michigan Blue even if this primary mess hadn’t happened. McCain is not GWB and will attract some Independent and even Reagan Democrat votes. We need every break we can get now.

      The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

      – Ralph Waldo Emerson
      by: michmark @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 21:31:05 PM CDT

      Reply
      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        New Rasmussen Poll
        Agreed. Head-to-head polls in March mean virtually nothing, but it was a bit of a shock to see McCain beating both Clinton and Obama by 3 points in Michigan in the Rasmussen Poll released today.
        by: Brady @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 22:02:41 PM CDT

        Reply
        1. Violet Avatar
          Violet

          I’m not surprised
          what with all the discontent.Of course any thought that McCain could win Michigan is absurd. Ridiculous. Idiotic.

          The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

          – Ralph Waldo Emerson
          by: michmark @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 22:13:51 PM CDT

          Reply
          1. Violet Avatar
            Violet

            Let’s hope
            the Republicans waste cash here thinking they will win.
            by: Nazgul35 @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 23:18:32 PM CDT

  6. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    I’ve got to be honest with you
    not a damn soul outside the political geeks like those of us here on the blogs and at party meeting really give a damn about this.
    The decision to keep the previous vote, or re-vote won’t do a thing to influence the November election here in Michigan.

    We really need to stop treating the voting public like their are a bunch of rubes.

    by: Nazgul35 @ Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 23:17:33 PM CDT

    Reply

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