Fantasy of Privately-funded/Publicly-conducted Do-Over

by: Grebner

Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 06:13:21 AM EDT

According to the Detroit News, the current scheme for salvaging Michigan’s representation in Denver calls upon the legislature  to immediately adopt legislation (not yet written) to hold a June 3 presidential primary.  Apparently, the MDP’s task farce, consisting of Sen. Levin, Debbie Dingell, Cong. Kilpatrick and Ron Gettelfinger, has given up, and decided to wrap things up by passing their responsibility off to a political body not under their control.  This is roughly like transferring somebody from the oncology ward to hospice.

Is it necessary to explain why this new approach won’t work?  I’m sure everybody understands this project is simply doomed, but we can encourage interaction and discussion by trying to create a list of all the fatal defects.

I’ll start.  Please add your own.

First, there’s the fact the bill hasn’t been drafted yet, so all the ugly choices that would need to be made haven’t surfaced.  All the niggling over money and control of the election.  Whether local issues can be included.  Exactly which costs borne by local officials will have to be reimbursed.  Access to the list of people who vote in it.  The exact declaration of support for the Democratic Party that will be required.  Whether a person who voted Republican on Jan. 15 will be permitted to vote.  Lots of little points that could be resolved if there were adequate time, and pressure on everybody to reach an agreement.

Then there’s the fact many schools are conducting an election May 6, which will mean there will be two elections being conducted simultaneously, with absentee ballot mailings crossing each other.  That some equipment needed in the first election may not be available in time for the second one, because of the requirement to seal it until a recount could be completed.

There’s the fact the money hasn’t been raised yet, so the Legislature would have to write a bill that makes the election contingent upon receipt of a sum that can’t be calculated at this time.  And of course, with Republicans doing the calculation of how much money the Democrats will have to contribute, the only question is how shocking the final bill will be.

The idea itself is so hare-brained that it’s bound to be extremely unpopular with the already-irate public, further encouraging grandstanding and sniping.

The election would be conducted by Teri Land, who is completely unsympathetic to it, and has every reason to discover or invent obstacles.

 That every association of County Clerks, Township Clerks, City Clerks, and School District officials will loudly oppose it, lobby against it, and warn everybody that it’s unworkable, stupid, cancer-causing, and a bad idea.

 Mike Cox, who isn’t getting along with anybody, will have a chance to throw his monkey-wrench into the works.  Any chance to embarrass Land would be impossible to pass up.

There are any number of legal challenges which might be launched – once the bill is actually written, let alone signed into law – which could threaten a fatal delay.   It’s hard to imagine an election so unprecedented could be created under such time-pressure without creating a legal question or two.

Adoption requires not just instantly assembling a majority in both houses, but two-thirds, because it will need “immediate effect”, arming Republicans in each House with a tool to demand a quid pro quo – which will certainly be chosen from the list of “reforms” the Democrats have refused until now to consider.

This proposal – like Blanche Dubois – stakes all its hope “upon the kindness of strangers”.  Pathetic.


Comments

18 responses to “Fantasy of Privately-funded/Publicly-conducted Do-Over”

  1. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Immediate effect
    A 2/3 vote? Ha! With Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R) serving up quotes like this (from yesterday’s Gongwer)it’d be lucky to even get a simple majority:
    “We’re open to ways to solve this because we want the Michigan delegates to count, but I haven’t heard of a solid plan coming from Democrats,” Mr. Bishop said. “It will require quick work for the Legislature to ameliorate this debacle.”
    Mr. Bishop said he would not agree to using any state funds for a new primary and raised issues of timing of how and when private funds would be raised and given to the state.

    “We have to figure out if it is possible for private funds to be used to reimburse the state. I have some strong questions about that,” Mr. Bishop said. He also said Republicans would want to have some say in what date is used.

    Astute observations as usual Mark. May as well stick a fork in this idea.

    “HAZEN S. PINGREE…He was the first to warn the people of the great danger threatened by powerful private corporations, and the first to awake to the great inequalities in taxation and to initiate steps for reforms. THE IDOL OF THE PEOPLE”
    by: Hazen Pingree @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 06:15:38 AM CDT

    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Sticking a fork in it.
      I’m afraid it’s not just this scheme that’s done – it’s the whole idea of salvaging Michigan’s role at the Convention. The time they’re squandering on this scheme is all the time they had left, I’m afraid.

      by: Grebner @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 06:20:02 AM CDT

      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        Agreed
        The momentum for a new primary/caucus does seem to be peetering out…especially if a never-happen state-run contest is now the supposed compromise. I suspect the ultimate solution will be closer to what is described by Mark Halperin on Time Magazine’s “The Page”:
        -Michigan’s 156 delegates would be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama.
        Florida’s existing delegates would be seated at the Denver conventionbut with half a vote each. That would give Clinton a net gain of about 19 elected delegates.

        – The two states’ superdelegates would then be able to vote in Denver, likely netting Clinton a few more delegates.

        The betting: Florida and Michigan delegates, the DNC, and the Clinton campaign would all – some reluctantly- accept this deal.

        Then it would be over to you, Barack Obama.

        Oh well. Looks like my satirical vote for Dennis Kucinich in the satirical Jan. 15th primary will be the only presidential primary vote I cast this year.

        “HAZEN S. PINGREE…He was the first to warn the people of the great danger threatened by powerful private corporations, and the first to awake to the great inequalities in taxation and to initiate steps for reforms. THE IDOL OF THE PEOPLE”
        by: Hazen Pingree @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 06:29:05 AM CDT

        1. Violet Avatar
          Violet

          If the Michigan Democratic Party lets Senate Republicans have any say…
          …it will have been guilty of collective stupidity the likes of which ye’s never seen.
          Nevermind the idea of letting Republicans have one iota’s say in when the do-over is scheduled, this creates an all-too-easy opportunity for Mike Bishop when he runs for governor in two years to paint Democrats incapable of solving their internal differences and requiring his intervention to help them out. The irony of this is that Bishop carries a great deal of guilt in pushing last year’s budget deal four hours past the point of government shutdown, and has no business being allowed anywhere near the mantle of bi-partisan problem solver.

          Among the Trees

          by: Eric B. @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:00:01 PM CDT

          1. Violet Avatar
            Violet

            Senate Republicans
            So true Eric. I can just picture the list of items they’ll want to trade. A repeal of term limits on the same ballot as the primary will be item #1.
            I think the GOP fight for Governor will come down to DeVos and his money and Candice Miller and her greater electability. The other candidates are B list.

            by: Brady @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:20:11 PM CDT

          2. Violet Avatar
            Violet

            The do-over is doomed–and should be
            It’s not practical and costs too much.
            There is a growing body of opinion that niether campaign really wants a re-vote. But, the threat of, possibly, having these flawed contests–will be enough to drive them into a compromise on how the delegates should be seated.

            Also, there are a couple of problems with this piece of Mark Halperin’s. I find it hard to believe Obama would agree to it.

            -Michigan’s 156 delegates would be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama.
            Actually–Michigan would have 128 pledged delegates.
            Since, Halperin later refers to the 2 states “Superdelegates”, it is clear he wants to split only 128.

            FL’s existing delegates would be seated at the Denver convention but with half a vote each. That would give Clinton a net gain of about 19 elected delegates.
            This still nets Clinton 19 delegates in an, essentially, uncontested election.

            The two states’ superdelegates would then be able to vote in Denver, likely netting Clinton a few more delegates.

            This is completely wrong
            The analysis of MSNBC’s Chuck Todd (a pretty well-informed person, on these matters), and many other independent sources, have put the Clinton net pickup of “Supers” (if FL and MI are seated) in the neighborhood of +25 to 30 for Clinton.

            The betting: Florida and Michigan delegates, the DNC, and the Clinton campaign would all – some reluctantly- accept this deal.
            Sure they would.
            The deal nets Clinton anywhere from 44-50 delegates. From contests that were, essentially, uncontested and weren’t meant to award delegates.

            Then it would be over to you, Barack Obama.
            He’d be a fool to accept it.
            He’s better off not agreeing to any type of do-over and settling it in the credentials committee.

            “Those who attempt to censor free speech by filtering the Internet, are… the… TRUE… “tiny cats” of cyberspace.”
            by: detroit tiger @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:08:00 AM CDT

          3. Violet Avatar
            Violet

            Not Necessarily
            Getting a compromise that preserves his lead in pledged delegates (even if it shrinks slightly), AND takes Michigan and Florida off the front pages, is a net gain for Obama.
            Any other option would probably be worse for him.

            We may not like that we won’t get another chance to vote, but that ship has long since sailed.

            The Superdelegates will shift en masse once they see which way the wind is blowing. Any talk about who is “pledged” to who today is irrelevant, because they are not bound by anything other than their individual consciences.

            by: helzapoppn @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 13:10:44 PM CDT

          4. Violet Avatar
            Violet

            This option wouldn’t hurt Obama
            *[new]
            Not Necessarily
            Getting a compromise that preserves his lead in pledged delegates (even if it shrinks slightly), AND takes Michigan and Florida off the front pages, is a net gain for Obama.

            I think he could live with something like that, as long as the “Supers” from MI and FL aren’t seated.

            Any other option would probably be worse for him.
            The option of, simply, not agreeing to any kind of “do-over”, and following the original rules (since he is certain to win a credentials vote) is BETTER, for him, than any of the so-called “compromises”.

            “Those who attempt to censor free speech by filtering the Internet, are… the… TRUE… “tiny cats” of cyberspace.”
            by: detroit tiger @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 13:21:46 PM CDT

  2. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    everyone has an agenda
    who is thinking about the voters?

    What would Eleanor Roosevelt do?
    by: janeenr @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:42:40 AM CDT

    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Sorry janeenr but the voters
      elected the bozos who screwed up this whole process. The voters overwhelmingly passed term limits so that we have a dysfunctional state legislature. The “voters” are just getting what they deserve.

      by: MarvToler @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:07:16 AM CDT

      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        not all are voted in
        not all the parties involved have been voted into office. Plus the Clinton and Obama campaigns are decision makers too.

        What would Eleanor Roosevelt do?
        by: janeenr @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:23:08 AM CDT

        1. Violet Avatar
          Violet

          Yes, they were
          The original unsanctioned primary was approved by the legislature and the governor. Others were involved, but not officially. Only the governor and legislature had the power to schedule and approve that primary. If Michigan legally holds another primary within the rules of the DNC, neither Clinton nor Obama could stop it.
          by: MarvToler @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 13:31:40 PM CDT

  3. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    MDP Fails again
    I really liked your original idea where the MDP could use this process as a fund raiser almost, necessitating only the enabling legislation (a feat in and of itself, though manageable). With this cobbling together of ideas, no wonder Florida has already rejected this idea. Is there any hope of salvaging the delegate situation?
    by: TomChoske @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:08:36 AM CDT

    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      My proposal didn’t require any legislation.
      The MDP and DNC had to adopt the necessary rules, but I try very hard to eliminate contingencies and vetoes. It’s always best, when trying to solve a problem, to look for a solution that doesn’t require action by hostile or indifferent forces. I guess that’s so obvious it doesn’t need stating.
      by: Grebner @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:08:04 AM CDT

  4. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Campaign Finance Aspects of Caucus do-over?
    I’m certainly not a campaign finance expert. However, private funding for a “do over” would have to come from somewhere. It also would likely be deemed to benefit a candidate committee. Would the money spent on a caucus-style re-vote be considered a contribution to a candidate? Would the state prohibitions on corporate soft money contributions be inplicated? Aren’t committees capped at the amounts they can contribute to any campaingn or candidate committee, and would we want this to be PAC funded anyway? Are efforts to seat the delegates actually “in kind” contributions to the candidates? Would these be corporate soft money contributions generally prohibited under state law?
    This doesn’t even scratch the surface of federal law, which applies to all elections for federal office.

    I’ve only taken a few trips through these poorly drafted statutes, and it seems like a privately funded caucus-style re-vote could be a nightmare.

    by: Bluesman Johnson @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:26:13 AM CDT

    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      It wouldn’t have anything to do with a candidate’s campaign.
      It would be no different than if we held a party caucus in that respect. All states hold either a primary or caucus and the money it takes to run them,no matter who it comes from, is not considered campaign funding. Private donation might have to be reported as a contribution to the MDP, if the MDP holds a caucus, but I wouldn’t think so for a candidate. If the state runs a primary and the donated money goes to the state then it is never in the hands of the MDP or the candidates.

      The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

      – Ralph Waldo Emerson
      by: michmark @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:53:40 AM CDT

  5. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    do-over to decide pledged delegates, but no superdelegates
    There was an interesting blog on Huffington Post the other day that points out (to those not paying close attention to this issu) that both pledged delegates and supers are currently barred from MI and FL, and yet many of those superdelegates are the ones responsible for this mess (not that anyone could truly see this coming back then.) So even if we can manage a revote the DNC should bar the superdelegates from MI and FL.
    Clinton’s camp is apparently ESPECIALLY interested in making sure superdelegates from the two states are seated, because in that race she does exceedingly well, due to old friendships and alliances, and would pick up more from them than from an actual primary–which also could be part of why Obama’s camp is cold to the idea.

    by: Abuttery @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:18:33 PM CDT

    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      That is the BEST way
      do-over to decide pledged delegates, but no superdelegates
      So even if we can manage a revote the DNC should bar the superdelegates from MI and FL.

      Absolutely.
      Clinton’s camp is apparently ESPECIALLY interested in making sure superdelegates from the two states are seated, because in that race she does exceedingly well, due to old friendships and alliances, and would pick up more from them than from an actual primary–which also could be part of why Obama’s camp is cold to the idea.
      As I pointed out earlier, most estimates have her netting anywhere from 25 to 30 “supers” out of MI and FL (combined).
      Under this model, even if Obama splits the pledged delegates, if MI and FL are seated, his overall lead shrinks by 25 to 30.

      I think that, if a compromise is reached to re-do these states, the “supers” should be eliminated, the delegations should be seated as if the entire delegation is “pladged”–thus, instead of Granholm (for example) being a “super”, she would just be seated as a “Clinton delegate”– in a pledged delegate split based on the re-do.

      “Those who attempt to censor free speech by filtering the Internet, are… the… TRUE… “tiny cats” of cyberspace.”

      by: detroit tiger @ Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 13:35:27 PM CDT

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