Category: Technical Politics

Our Get-Out-The-Vote drives are driven by folklore, group-think, and doing what comes naturally, rather than being the product of careful design.  Especially in a high-turnout environment, where almost everybody who falls within the obvious categories is already voting, our efforts and money are targeted so inefficiently they make virtually no difference.   An observer dropping…

! – promoted by Eric B.)      The Elections Division continues to update the presidential primary returns to reflect official numbers as they are reported by the counties.  Most significantly, the Division has fixed an error that inflated the vote totals — Democratic and Republican — in the Congressional District part of the returns in…

It’s time to assess who guessed right and who guessed wrong.  Let’s keep in mind that people who made bad guesses still deserve more credit than people who only announce their “predictions” after the polls are closed and the ballots are counted. First:  the actual results.  It may surprise you to hear we don’t have…

(From Alan Fox, partner, Practical Political Consulting.)  These delegates will be selected under state party rules beginning in March.  Whether they are seated is an entirely different question. The election returns by congressional district are posted at the Elections Division web site.  They will change over the next week or so as errors are corrected and as counties’ official…

[The following is from Alan Fox,  who actually does all the work at PPC and makes sure our numbers add up correctly.  I normally try to keep him out of sight.]  As we approach the Michigan primary there are two key issues that may be answered.  The first is one of public perception:  Will Clinton’s…

 I’ve been looking at the rates of applying for, and returning, absentee ballots for next Tuesday’s “election”.   I’ve been suprised by the sizeable Democratic turnout, even among people I have previously identified as Republican-leaning.   I hereby renounce my previous estimates, in favor of 650,000 Democratic votes and 900,000 Republican.  (With a garnish of 20,000 for…

I have just looked at a file of absentee ballots requested and returned in Michigan for the January 15 election.  Although absentee voters aren’t completely representative, I work with the data I have, rather than the data I’d like to have.  (Apologies to former Secretary Rumsfeld.)  UPDATE – 1-15-08 – Been looking at actual counts…

An introduction to some elementary statistical concepts, specifically aimed at explaining how to compare percentages within and between polls.  I cover some of the stuff you barely understood when you were struggling through Methods courses, and which you have long forgotten.  Fortunately, there’s no homework, and no grading.  UPDATE:  Margin of error when looking at…

Half a century ago, Kenneth Arrow proved a theorem that straddles the boundary between political science and math, which has become known as Arrow’s Legislative Paradox.  Using the theorem in a sloppy and imprecise metaphor, I try to illuminate our stalemate over Michigan Democratic participation in the 2008 presidential selection process. To summarize and simplify: …

Chet Zarko isn’t the most popular person here, being a Republican: but he can be right once in a while, like anyone else. For example, he’s opposed the graft of voter lists, their being given as a free gift to the MDP and MRP bigwigs; and in this he is closer most to most Mich…