by: Grebner
Mon Aug 11, 2014 at 22:18:34 PM EDT
I’ve put together a set of charts showing how quickly absentee ballots were returned, along with an examination of the characteristics of people who failed to return their ballot at all.
My goals:
1) Convincing everybody that people do not generally return their absentee ballots right away – the supposed rule of thumb that half the ballots are returned in the first week is completely bogus. And
2) A very important and overlooked GOTV target should be voters who request a ballot but never actually return it. Among some groups of voters, 15% or even 25% of their votes are lost, because campaigns fail to understand that the battle for votes isn’t over when the ballot is requested, but only when it’s filled out and returned.
Updated August 12, showing when ballots were returned according to when they were sent.
Chart #1 shows that people who fail to return their ballots tend to be political independents / ticket-splitters. The strong partisans are driven by their clear opinions to make sure their voices are heard. The conflicted middle of the spectrum includes a larger number of ditherers.
Percentage of AV ballots not returned by August 5, 2014
By partisan orientation of voter
DEM% BALLOTS NOT RETURNED
0-4 156075 10%
5-14 42468 14%
15-24 20805 16%
25-34 15819 16%
35-44 14422 17%
45-54 15183 18%
55-65 15871 19%
65-74 17731 18%
75-84 19223 16%
85-94 30473 17%
95-100 143048 11%
Chart #2 shows that failing to return their ballot is mainly a problem among people who don’t have much experience with absentee voting, especially people who have NEVER previously voted absentee. This ought to be especially noted by the MDP which is constantly trying to convert Michigan’s “absentee voting” laws into “early voting”, by soliciting people who aren’t traditional absentee voters to apply. Even if they succeed, they ought to keep the pressure on, or else much of their effort will prove to be in vain.
Percentage of ballots not returned by August 5, 2014
By number of previous absentee ballots cast
COUNT NOT RETURNED
0 18043 29%
1 27734 21%
2 27701 19%
3 24465 17%
4 22734 17%
5 21478 16%
6 20471 15%
7 19581 14%
8 19540 13%
9 18738 12%
10 17822 12%
11 16559 11%
12 15819 10%
13 14964 10%
14 14480 10%
15 13812 10%
16 12946 9%
17 12628 9%
18 12342 9%
19 12091 9%
20 11888 8%
21 11867 8%
22 11804 8%
23 11689 8%
24 12162 7%
25 12012 6%
>25 55748 6%
Chart #3 shows that returning the absentee ballot to be counted is an inverse U-shaped curve, with both younger and very old voters failing to return their ballots. Among the very elderly, of course, the issue is likely to be declining health among people who were previously completely dependable. Among the youngsters, the problem is more likely to be lack of experience with AV ballots, and lack of interest and/or knowledge about the election.
Both of those problems can be substantially reduced by applying money and volunteers to the problem. And knowing the shape of the curve can help free up the needed resources, since they aren’t much needed among voters aged 62-80, who make up the bulk of absentee voters.
Percentage of ballots not returned by August 5, 2014
By number decade of birth.
BORN COUNT NOT RETURNED
1900’s 14 21%
1910’s 4242 18%
1920’s 62904 13%
1930’s 147536 10%
1940’s 182319 11%
1950’s 61674 16%
1960’s 17525 23%
1970’s 7179 27%
1980’s 4554 28%
1990’s 3169 27%
Finally, chart #4 shows that relatively few ballots were returned promptly; in reality the returns started slow, and picked up week-by-week as the election approached.
Part of this pattern might be explained by Prop 1, whose language was a model of murkiness. But the same pattern appears in almost every even-year August and November election, because there are generally enough complexities to force the conscientious to phone around and ask for advice. If it isn’t a tangled tax proposal, it’s a primary for Probate Judge, or a Library District renewal.
Date Ballots were returned
DATE COUNT
06/18 109
06/19 257
06/20 285
06/23 1053
06/24 997
06/25 1190
06/26 1309
06/27 2078
06/28 110
06/30 5519
07/01 5416
07/02 6329
07/03 5316
07/05 125
07/06 114
07/07 13457
07/08 11971
07/09 11467
07/10 12397
07/11 11623
07/12 398
07/14 22388
07/15 18606
07/16 18140
07/17 15380
07/18 11275
07/19 454
07/20 230
07/21 19572
07/22 15981
07/23 15824
07/24 14438
07/25 12521
07/26 701
07/27 194
07/28 21342
07/29 23206
07/30 21490
07/31 21470
08/01 22831
08/02 16019
08/03 638
08/04 44622
08/05 22655
Chart #5 (added 8/12/2014) shows when ballots were returned, according to when they were mailed out. Note that many of the ballots requested during the final three weeks were actually picked up at the Clerks’s offices by voters, rather than being requested by mail. A substantial portion of those ballots were marked by the voter and returned to the Clerk without ever leaving the office. Obviously, such ballots shouldn’t be taken into account when designing a campaign’s contact program.
Date Date
Ballot Ballot
Sent to Returned
Voter by Voter Count
6/1-6/28 6/1-6/28 7465
6/1-6/28 6/29-7/5 20873
6/1-6/28 7/ 6-7/12 29827
6/1-6/28 7/13-7/19 34959
6/1-6/28 7/20-7/26 27498
6/1-6/28 7/27-8/2 36260
6/1-6/28 8/3-8/5 17942
6/1-6/28 not retrnd 14097
6/29-7/5 6/29-7/5 1882
6/29-7/5 7/ 6-7/12 23274
6/29-7/5 7/13-7/19 25282
6/29-7/5 7/20-7/26 19119
6/29-7/5 7/27-8/2 22690
6/29-7/5 8/3-8/5 11431
6/29-7/5 not retrnd 8723
7/ 6-7/12 7/ 6-7/12 8227
7/ 6-7/12 7/13-7/19 23034
7/ 6-7/12 7/20-7/26 19293
7/ 6-7/12 7/27-8/2 21706
7/ 6-7/12 8/3-8/5 10032
7/ 6-7/12 not retrnd 8613
7/13-7/19 7/13-7/19 2875
7/13-7/19 7/20-7/26 9535
7/13-7/19 7/27-8/2 11248
7/13-7/19 8/3-8/5 4956
7/13-7/19 not retrnd 3349
7/20-7/26 7/20-7/26 5151
7/20-7/26 7/27-8/2 16070
7/20-7/26 8/3-8/5 5969
7/20-7/26 not retrnd 3382
7/27-8/2 7/27-8/2 19120
7/27-8/2 8/3-8/5 13664
7/27-8/2 not retrnd 4696
8/3-8/5 8/3-8/5 4268
8/3-8/5 not retrnd 223
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