by: Grebner
Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 22:09:40 PM EST
We previously invited guesses about the distribution of delegates in Tuesday’s election, and now we’re in a position to assess – and laugh at – those who showed the courage to participate.
As previously announced, each correct guess was worth one point, each incorrect guess cost two points, and there was no penalty for leaving a district unassigned.
The winner: RepublicanMichigander, who had twelve correct guesses and only two wrong ones, for a +8 score. (Come on! Let’s make him feel welcome! Stop pouring beer on him!)
Second place was Nate Silver‘s NY Times website FiveThirtyEight, with eight correct guesses, one wrong, for +6. (Technically, Nate didn’t submit a guess, but I took his prediction from the night before the election.)
Third place – ahem – was myself. Eleven correct guesses, three misses, for +5. (In claiming this humble prize, I’d point out that my entry was submitted a full week before election day, while the two that beat me had the benefit of waiting and additional polling.)
Fourth place was PeterBratt, who got the same number of points I did, but who underestimated the turnout even more than I did, so he lost the tiebreaker. He also got eleven right and three wrong, for +5.
Fifth place went to MEMiller, with eight correct, three wrong, and two passes, for a score of +2.
Sixth place went to Foster, McCollum & White‘s first poll, which scored eight correct, three misses, and two passes, for +2. (I decided anybody who didn’t submit a tie-breaker automatically loses ties. It doesn’t matter that they never knew they were playing.)
Seventh place goes to Foster, McCollum & White‘s second poll, released Sunday before the election, but taken three days earlier, which had nine correct guesses, four wrong ones, and one pass. Total: +1.
Eighth place goes to DonK, with nine correct guesses, and five incorrect ones, for -1.
Ninth place was MiddleGrandGuy, also with nine correct guesses and five incorrect, for -1 also. But his tiebreaker guess was even worse than DonK’s. (EVERYBODY was way too low.)
Finally, in tenth place, ScottyUrb, with eight correct guesses, and six incorrect ones, for -4.
THANKS FOR PLAYING!
We also note that we are SHOCKED! SHOCKED! to discover the Michigan Republican Party is only now deciding where the goalposts were supposed to be located, now that the game is over and the players have gone home.
They had always said that the final two, at-large, delegates would be awarded proportionately to the top finishers over 15%, meaning that Romney and Santorum would each get one.
According to MIRS (no link) it appears the MRP actually meant the statewide contest was winner-take-all, now that Romney has finished first.
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