by: Grebner
Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 22:07:51 PM EST
I know of two competing assessments of which Republican will win each of Michigan’s 14 CDs. If you have a guess, or hear of somebody else’s prediction, please post it, and I will update my chart.
Winning at the district level will essentially completely determine the allocation of delegates, since the winner of each district gets both delegates assigned, and there are only two at-large delegates, who will certainly be split 1-1 between Romney and Santorum.
PPC’s prediction was published in MIRS, Feb 20. Foster, McCollum & White’s prediction was published in Gongwer (to which I don’t have access) and reproduced in a reply here on ML.
If you want to play, just post a reply with your predictions. Here’s the scoring I’ll use: 1 point for every correct guess, -2 points for every incorrect guess, and no score where you don’t want to hazard a guess. So if you don’t know, you don’t have to provide an answer.
2/28/2012 GOP Presidential Primary Prediction Contest
CD FMW PPC DonK MGG RM MEM SU PB FMW2 538
1 S S S S S R S S S S
2 S S S S S S S S S S
3 – S S R S – S R R –
4 S S S S S S S S R S
5 – R S S S S S R R –
6 S S S S S R S S R S
7 – R S S S S S S S –
8 S R S S R R S R R –
9 R R R R R R S R R R
10 S S S S S – S S – –
11 R R R R R R R R R R
12 S R S R R R S R R R
13 S R R R S – R R R R
14 R R R R R R R R R R
FMW total: Santorum 8, Romney 3, tossup 3.
PPC total: Santorum 5, Romney 9.
DonK total: Santorum 9, Romney 4.
MiddleGrandGuy total: Santorum 8, Romney 6.
Republican Michigander total: Santorum 9, Romney 5.
MEMiller total: Santorum 4, Romney 7, tossup 3.
Scotty Urb total: Santorum 11, Romney 3.
PBratt total: Santorum 6, Romney 8.
FMW2 total: Santorum 3, Romney 10, tossup 1.
538.com: Santorum 4, Romney 5, tossup 5.
For extra credit, guess the total number of Republican primary votes cast.
PPC’s guess: 810,000
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