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The Michigan Democratic Primary — The Math, Part II

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Violet
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by: Grebner

Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 10:48:53 AM EST

(From Alan Fox, partner, Practical Political Consulting.) 

These delegates will be selected under state party rules beginning in March.  Whether they are seated is an entirely different question.

The election returns by congressional district are posted at the Elections Division web site.  They will change over the next week or so as errors are corrected and as counties’ official results replace these unofficial election night returns.  Occasionally a county’s changes will be quite substantial.  Some changes were, in fact, posted as I was copying these figures off, with a result that these statewide totals are different from anything as yet posted.

Here are the important numbers, as of about 9:00 a.m.:

CD CLINTON UNCOMM  TOTAL CPCT UPCT DEL Clint Uncom
  1   19553   9150  30249 64.6 30.2   5  3    2 
  2   16427  10174  27834 59.0 36.6   5  3    2 
  3   14957  12732  28976 51.6 43.9   5  3    2 
  4   17376   9400  28136 61.8 33.4   5  3    2 
  5   22558  14493  38219 59.0 37.9   6  4    2 
  6   15822  11031  28221 56.1 39.1   5  3    2 
  7   16665   9921  28125 59.3 35.3   5  3    2 
  8   20098  13684  35832 56.1 38.2   6  4    2 
  9   25864  20074  48545 53.3 41.4   6  3    3 
 10   24278  11930  37982 63.9 31.4   5  3    2 
 11   26809  16606  45763 58.6 36.3   5  3    2 
 12   30879  22386  55795 55.3 40.1   6  3*   3 
 13   29674  29004  60673 48.9 47.8   6  3    3 
 14   33334  35000  70537 47.3 49.6   7  3    4 
 15   28591  20747  52898 54.0 39.2   6  3*   3 
           
 AL  342885 246332 617785 55.5 39.9  28 16   12 
 PL                                  17 10    7 
 
 GRAND TOTAL                       128  73   55

The first three columns are raw votes for Clinton, Uncommitted and the total of all votes.  Note that in no place do any other candidates come close to the qualifying percentage for delegates so they have been omitted.  The Clinton and Uncommitted percentages are proportions of the total.  The next column has the total number of delegates to be allocated.  At the bottom, AL refers to the at-large delegates and PL to the pledged party leader delegates, both of which are apportioned statewide based on the statewide total of votes.  The last two columns are the delegate allocations for each pool between Clinton and Uncommitted.

The stars in the Clinton column in CDs 12 and 15 indicates that in each district Clinton is just a little short of the votes needed to win a fourth delegate (and Uncommitted is close to losing a delegate).  These are the districts where even a small change from the unofficial to official totals could affect delegate totals.

In any event we will next go through the process of electing these delegates.  Anybody interested in the process should consult the delegate selection plan at the MDP website.  I would just note that February 28 is the deadline for a candidate for delegate to file that intent with the state party.  As in the election no write-ins or other late starters will be allowed.

To cut to the chase, complete unofficial returns indicate that Clinton won 73 delegates and that 55 uncommitted delegates are to be elected.

Comments

14 responses to “The Michigan Democratic Primary — The Math, Part II”

  1. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Thanks Genii!
    I will submit my intent to run as an Uncommitted Delegate in the 1st Congressional District in the next few weeks. I better book my own hotel room. Phil, would you be comfortable sharing a room with me?
    by: northernlib @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 09:55:49 AM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Sharing a room
      That’s a good idea, you uncommitteds should stick together. 😉

      The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

      – Ralph Waldo Emerson
      by: michmark @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 10:00:46 AM CST

      Reply
  2. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Once Again, Team Hillary Playing Games
    Run as a Hillary delegate, not Uncommitted.
    Jeez, is there any sense of ethics and character out there?

    PS: Please resist the temptation to engage me in chit-chat, I’m completely uninterested.

    West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

    by: philgoblue @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 12:12:28 PM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      What about sense of humor?

      by: michmark @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 12:30:47 PM CST

      Reply
  3. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Why Uncommitted?
    Really, why uncommitted? If Obama, Edwards, etc. had been on the ballot, would you have tried to sneak in as an Obama delegate?
    It could be that you’re just joking, but I take democracy pretty seriously. The delegates selected are representing a certain bloc of voters, and you’d be representing the ones who specifically went out of their way to not vote for Hillary Clinton. Becoming an Uncommitted delegate just to turn around and vote for her would be a betrayal of the good Democrats you’d be representing.

    Will any of it matter in the long run? Of course not. Our delegates will only be seated if there’s no possible way for Michigan’s delegates to make a difference in the outcome. But processes like these matter. Ensuring transparency and honesty, be it in selecting delegates to a convention or selecting members of Congress, is a necessary part of democracy.

    Forget the politics. Honesty and integrity matter a lot more than giving Hillary Clinton one more vote at the convention.

    Walberg Watch – MI-07’s Radical Conservative Tim Walberg

    by: Fitzy @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 15:14:27 PM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Northernlib for Uncommitted
      Because 3% of Clinton’s supporters voted Uncommitted on the Democratic ballot according to the exit polls published by Nirmal and by God, these voters deserve to be represented at the convention by at least 1 delegate.
      by: northernlib @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 15:23:43 PM CST

      Reply
  4. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Uncommitted Delegate
    I talked to a woman today who told me she voted Uncommitted. I asked her if she favored Obama or Edwards. She told me she didn’t like Edwards but hadn’t made up her mind between Clinton and Obama. I will be representing that woman in Denver along with hundreds like her who just hadn’t made up their minds on January 15. It’s wrong to assume that everyone who voted Uncommitted was actually already a solid supporter of Obama or Edwards.
    by: northernlib @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 18:29:01 PM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Again
      it doesn’t frigging matter…
      The selection of delegates will come well after we have a nominee

      So all this BS about who will get the slots and who won’t doesn’t frigging matter.

      In fact, it’s going to be real easy for anyone to get to be a delegate, because all the party insider usual suspects won’t want to spend all that cash to go and get lousy hotels and seating for the convention.

      So perhaps everyone should stop freaking out over something that won’t even matter in a months time.

      by: Nazgul35 @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 21:51:06 PM CST

      Reply
      1. Violet Avatar
        Violet

        Don’t think so …
        Is there anybody here who wouldn’t jump at the chance to be a delegate or alternate and go to the convention in Denver?
        Even if the usual suspects step aside, there will be plenty of us unusual suspects who’d like to have that experience.

        So I doubt very much it will be “real easy for anyone” to become a delegate.

        by: Kestenbaum @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:43:16 AM CST

        Reply
        1. Violet Avatar
          Violet

          people keep sayin’
          “Oh, by that time we’ll have a nominee” – yes, that is how it has played out for the last, what, 40 years. And that is what is most probable. But it is not certain.
          Obama and Clinton could stay evenly matched through the rest of the primaries, with Edwards (and, remember, the missing MI and FL delegates, which STILL count towards setting the number that makes a majority) preventing either from reaching a majority.

          Then what happens to those Uncommitted delegates might matter very much. Not saying it is likely, so if it plays out as we both expect, don’t tell me “I told you so”.

          by: memiller @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:39:10 AM CST

          Reply
          1. Violet Avatar
            Violet

            Uncommitted Subgroups
            By that logic, we can break the Uncommitted vote down into enough subgroups that none of them have 15% and all the delegates go to Hillary.
            by: northernlib @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 18:31:51 PM CST

  5. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    woe Michigan
    Michigan’s pathetic primary just reflects the downfall of michigan’s economy: a sobering look at yesterday’s primary from Jeffrey St. Clair over at counterpunch
    http://www.counterpunch.org/st…

    by: left of liberal @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 10:28:27 AM CST

    Reply
    1. Violet Avatar
      Violet

      Enough already
      It’s over. Move on. Next topic.

      “It’s 7 houses, McMansion.”
      by: yvette248 @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 13:55:15 PM CST

      Reply
  6. Violet Avatar
    Violet

    Remember the glitch
    In 27 counties, a programming error (not discovered until Monday) dumped Uncommitted votes into the write-in bucket. Hand counts are necessary in those counties to come up with the uncommitted totals. Probably different counties employed different strategies to handle counting and reporting the revised totals.
    Most of the affected counties are small, including 12 of 15 in the Upper Peninsula. The largest one is Jackson. See my weblog for a complete list.

    by: Kestenbaum @ Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 13:02:17 PM CST

    Reply

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