by: Grebner
Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 22:34:56 PM EDT
I hate to agree with anything that appears in the Detroit News; it always makes me wonder whether I’m being suckered. But it may be true that Michigan voters are shifting toward the Democratic alternatives in each of the 110 races for state representative on the ballot this fall.
At PPC, our polling is almost always centered on the candidates whose names appear on a specific ballot, so we haven’t tried to test the general statewide political climate. But in the half dozen races we’ve polled recently, there’s been a consistent thread in the results: the Democratic candidates were doing better than we expected.
Speaking impressionistically (because the polls were mostly commissioned by campaigns which haven’t publicly released the results) the shifts in allegiances we’ve seen haven’t been solely among independents and ticket-splitters. For some reason, Democratic candidates are picking up substantial numbers of votes from people we expect to be consistent Republican supporters. The Republican candidates are struggling to hold onto their bases, getting clobbered among ticket-splitters, and not making any noticeable headway among Democrats. In short, the polling looks a lot like the numbers we saw in 2008.
Three months ago, my sense was that Democratic candidates running for the eight bottom-of-ticket statewide education offices would take an average of 51% or 52% of the two-party vote, which is what I mean by “baseline”. But I’m beginning to think the actual number will be 54% or 55%. (In 2008, it soared to 57%, which I never expected to see in my lifetime.)
If the baseline is as high as 54%, both Democrats and Republicans ought to re-prioritize where they are spending their resources. Shaky Democratic incumbents will turn out to be safe, and not worth much attention. “Toss-up” seats will turn out NOT to be toss-ups, but fairly easy Dem wins, at least if the Democrats run competent campaigns. The real battlegrounds will be seats that are classed “leaning Republican”, where a mistake or a little extra effort may make all the difference. And a few apparently safe Republicans may wake up on November 7 and discover their careers have taken an unexpected turn.
I’m not 100% sure the baseline will rise as high as 54%, but I’ve seen half a dozen surprising polls, and not one of them has been something that should make the Republicans smile.
These comments are focused on the races for state representative, because I wonder if the phenomenon may be focused on state offices, as the result of hostility toward Republican legislation, especially the taxation of pensions. But the impact is likely to be broader, and to trickle down to county and township offices as well.
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